Биткоин достиг отметки $47K, поскольку аналитики согласны с тем, что консолидация цен BTC не может продолжаться долго
Bitcoin (BTC) recovered from new lows of $45,550 on Jan. 5 as analysts waited patiently for a “squeeze” to trigger fresh volatility.
BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView
Analyst weighs prospect of “fakedown” toward $40,000
Data from our site Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD returning to the previous day’s levels near $47,000 on Binance at the time of writing.
The repeated dips had failed to unsettle market participants, who now turned to the prospect of an abrupt move up or down in the coming weeks. Volatility in a time of flat funding rates and record-high open interest on derivatives markets, they had said Tuesday, was all but a given.
“Think we enter a volatility squeeze by end of the month,” analyst William Clemente forecast in part of comments on Bitcoin’s Bollinger band chart.
A popular indicator, which Clemente acknowledged as one of his “favorite” tools, Bollinger bands use two standard deviation bands around Bitcoin’s spot price to assess when volatility is likely to come.
BTC/USD with Bollinger bands annotated chart. Source: William Clemente/Twitter
Однако на этой неделе вопрос заключался в том, будет ли движение вверх или вниз.
«Если мы получим ту же ситуацию, что и в конце июля, и первоначальный отскок вниз к 40-м градусам из сжатия, то я буду покупателем», — добавил Клементе во время обсуждения перспектив.
В следующем сообщении была раскрыта вероятная причина падения до $45 550 — неудачная попытка трейдера сделать короткую позицию на минимумах и последующий обратный выкуп.
Bitcoin volatility index chart. Source: Coinglass
Red herring candles
Those looking for upside, meanwhile, highlighted macro factors. Inflation, running hotter than anticipated, had not been fully reacted to by Bitcoin yet.
“View-wise, we are still holding out for an upside move in the near-term,” trading firm QCP Capital wrote in its latest update to Telegram channel subscribers.
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“Looking at the 10-year breakeven inflation rate (which has historically had a high correlation with BTC), there has been a material divergence since end-December… If BTC plays catch up here we could see the move towards 60,000.”
End of Quote.
Inflation cues are due next week with the publication of December’s consumer price index data.
“Never once BTC looked like this when it ended its bullish cycle. NEVER, since its inception,” an even more bullish Galaxy continued Tuesday.
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“It always drops sharply without much recovery.”
End of Quote.
Гэлакси наблюдал периоды консолидации после ценовых вершин на протяжении всей истории Биткойна и пришел к выводу, что вершина в $69 000 в ноябре не могла логически сформировать многолетний максимум.
«Мы находимся в консолидации перед следующим мощным движением вверх», — добавил он.
BTC/USD annotated chart. Source: Galaxy/Twitter