Terra (LUNA) достигает нового исторического максимума после 100% отскока от минимумов 2022 года — впереди коррекция?
Terra (LUNA) rose to its best level to date on March 29 as the Luna Foundation Guard’s (LFG) plans to increase its Bitcoin (BTC) reserves eased anxiety about the impact of an increasingly hawkish Federal Reserve and the ongoing Ukraine-Russia war on crypto markets.
LUNA price hits new record high above $106
LUNA’s price breached above the previous record high of $106.29 by minuscule margins, reversing the losses incurred during the selloff between December 2021 and January 2022.
The latest price rally pushed Terra token’s net capitalization acrosse $37. 17 billion, now making up 1.76% of the entire crypto market, compared to 0.39% at the beginning of this year.
LUNA market dominance is increasing steadily in 2022. Source: TradingView
Terra does a MicroStrategy
Bitcoin wallets associated with LFG, a nonprofit spearheaded by Terra’s creator Do Kwon, saw an inflow of 2,830 BTC worth $135 million on March 28. The influx occurred as a part of LFG’s Bitcoin accumulation spree following a community proposal that suggested the use of BTC as collateral to «provide deep liquidity at a discount when the UST peg is under pressure.»
UST is Terra’s decentralized stablecoin. Terra is otherwise collateralized by the blockchain’s native cryptocurrency LUNA. As such, Terra’s economy supports the burning of LUNA tokens to mint more UST units as a strategy to maintain the latter’s dollar peg.
Quote.
We’re seeing some of the earliest and most ambitious ideas in crypto starting to unfold
Crosschain decentralized stablecoin backed entirely by digitally native assets was the holy grail in 2016
Bless$BTC $LUNA
— Zhu Su (@zhusu) March 29, 2022
End of Quote.
LFG has outlined plans to boost its Bitcoin reserves to $3 billion with a long-term strategy to swell the pool to $10 billion. In theory, that could lead to an increase in demand for UST, thereby forcing more LUNA tokens out of active supply permanently.
UST net supply. Source: Smart Stake
LUNA faces immediate selloff risks
From a technical perspective, LUNA faces the prospects of undergoing a 50% price correction in the coming weeks, though this may not necessarily hurt the bullish long-term outlook.
In detail, the Terra token has been consolidating inside what appears to be an ascending channel, a continuation pattern that appears after the price fluctuates inside a range defined by an upper horizontal and a lower rising trendline.
При идеальном сценарии развития событий происходит прорыв в направлении предыдущего тренда актива, цена поднимается на максимальное расстояние между верхней и нижней линией тренда канала. В результате цена LUNA может вырасти до $425 в 2022 году, как показано на графике ниже.
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Дневной график цены LUNA/USD демонстрирует установку «восходящий треугольник». Источник: TradingView
Но перспектива роста требует дальнейшего подтверждения, начиная с решительного прорыва выше верхней линии тренда треугольника. Если этого не произойдет, перспективы резкого отката LUNA к нижним линиям тренда кажутся более высокими, что означает падение цены к диапазону $50-$60, примерно на 50% от цены 29 марта.