«Самый «бычий» макроэкономический фон за последние 75 лет» — 5 вещей, за которыми стоит следить в биткоине на этой неделе

Bitcoin (BTC) starts a new week in a strange place — one which is eerily similar to where it was this time last year.
After what various sources have described as an entire twelve months of “consolidation,” BTC/USD is around $42,000 — almost exactly where it was in week two of January 2021.
The ups and downs in between have been significant, but essentially, Bitcoin remains in the midst of a now familiar range.
The outlook varies depending on the perspective — some believe that new all-time highs are more than possible this year, while others are calling for many more consolidatory months.
With crypto sentiment at some of its lowest levels in history, our site takes a look at what could change the status quo on shorter timeframes in the coming days.

Will $40,700 hold?

Bitcoin saw a trying weekend as the latest in a series of abrupt downward moves saw $40,000 support inch closer.
Data from our site Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD hitting $40,700 on major exchanges before bouncing, a correction which has since held.
Ironically, it was that very level which was in focus on the same day in 2021, that nonetheless coming during what turned out to be the more vertical phase of Bitcoin’s recent bull run.
Last September also returned the focus to $40,700, which acted as a turning point after several weeks of correction and ultimately saw BTC/USD climb to $69,000 all-time highs.
Now, however, the chances of a breakdown to the $30,000 zone are unreservedly higher among analysts.
«Недельное закрытие не за горами», — резюмировали в Rekt Capital вместе с графиком с целевыми уровнями.

«Теоретически, есть шанс, что $BTC может выполнить недельное закрытие выше ~$43200 (черный), чтобы насладиться зеленой неделей на следующей неделе. Однако при закрытии недели ниже ~$43200 BTC может вернуться к красной области внизу».

BTC/USD annotated candle chart. Source: Rekt Capital/ Twitter

Bitcoin ultimately closed at $42,000, since hovering at around that level in what could turn out to be some temporary relief for bulls.
“I think market puts in a lower high,” fellow trader and analyst Pentoshi forecast, adding that he believes $40,700 will ultimately fall.
An increasingly alluring target, meanwhile, lies at last summer’s $30,000 floor.

Consensus forms over dire outlook for cash

The macro picture this week is particularly complicated for risk asset fans, with Bitcoin and altcoins no exception.
What the future holds, however, varies considerably from one pundit to another.
The United States Federal Reserve is broadly seen to start raising interest rates in the coming months, this making investors de-risk and causing a headache for crypto bulls. “Easy money,” which began flowing in March 2020, will now be much harder to come by.
The bearish viewpoint was summarized neatly by ex-BitMEX CEO, Arthur Hayes, in his latest blog post last week.
“Let’s forget what non-crypto investors believe; my read on the sentiment of crypto investors is that they naively believe network and user growth fundamentals of the entire complex will allow crypto assets to continue their upward trajectory unabated,” he wrote.

«На мой взгляд, это создает предпосылки для серьезного отмывания, поскольку пагубное влияние роста процентных ставок на будущие денежные потоки, вероятно, побудит спекулянтов и маржинальных инвесторов сбросить или сильно сократить свои криптоактивы».

На этой неделе в США будут опубликованы данные по индексу потребительских цен (ИПЦ) за декабрь, которые, вероятно, подкрепят историю о неожиданном росте инфляции.
Хейс далеко не одинок в своих опасениях по поводу того, что ФРС может принести криптовалютам в этом году, и Пентоши, среди прочих, также называет временное прекращение бычьего роста.
«И последний вопрос — сможет ли криптовалюта игнорировать ФРС, если она решит нанести удар дефляционным мачете? Я сомневаюсь», — заключил аналитик Алекс Крюгер в серии твитов по этому вопросу в эти выходные.

«Не боритесь с ФРС» применимо в обоих направлениях, как вверх, так и вниз. Если ФРС *слишком ястребиная*, тогда Хьюстон, у нас проблема».

There were some optimists left in the room. Dan Tapiero, Founder and CEO of 10T Holdings, told followers to “ignore” the recent rout and focus on an unchanged long-term investment opportunity.
“Most bullish macro backdrop in 75 years,” he said.

“Booming economy supported by massive negative real rates. Fed will never equalize rates with inflation. Stay long stocks and Bitcoin and ETH. Hodl through short term volatility. Real Dollar cash savings will continue to lose value.”
End of Quote.

Here’s a look at the Effective Fed Funds Rate and Inflation Rates when the Unemployment Rate was at 3.9%, as it is today.

Find the outlier… pic.twitter.com/zU1zRj1uXC

— Charlie Bilello (@charliebilello) January 7, 2022
End of Quote.
Tapiero highlighted data compiled by Charlie Bilello, founder and CEO of Compound Capital Advisors.

RSI hits two-year lows

Amid the gloom, not everything is pointing to a protracted bearish phase for Bitcoin specifically.
As our site has been reporting, on-chain indicators are calling for upside in droves — and historical context serves to support those demands.
This week, it’s Bitcoin’s relative strength index (RSI) which continues to headline, reaching its lowest levels in two years.

#Bitcoin RSI has been this low just 2 other times in the last 2 years. Looks like a bottom is near and bounce due. Let’s see pic.twitter.com/qhQ1pD8yEl

— Bitcoin Archive (@BTC_Archive) January 9, 2022
End of Quote.
RSI is a key metric used to determine whether an asset is “overbought” or “oversold” at a given price point.
Plumbing the depths at $42,000 suggests that such a level really is considered too extreme by the market, and a rebound should occur to balance it.
By contrast, last January, RSI was sky high and conversely well within “overbought” territory, while BTC/USD traded at the same price.
“The Bitcoin RSI is on the lowest point in 2 years on the daily. March 2020 & May 2021 were the last ones. And people flip bearish here / want to short,” a hopeful our site contributor Michaël van de Poppe commented.

BTC/USD 1-day candle chart (Bitstamp) with RSI. Source: TradingView

our site noted similarly bullish hints on the monthly RSI chart last week.

Хэш-курс отыгрывает потери Казахстана

Еще один всплеск прошлой недели, который уже «излечился», относится к сфере фундаментальных показателей биткоина.
После достижения новых исторических максимумов в течение последних недель хэшрейт сети Биткойна пострадал, когда неспокойная обстановка в Казахстане ограничила доступность интернета.
После этого ситуация в Казахстане, где сосредоточено около 18% хэшрейта, стабилизировалась, что позволило хэшрейту в основном вернуться на прежний уровень 192 эксахешей в секунду (EH/s).
В какой-то момент он упал до 171 EH/s, но реакция на то, что некоторым напомнило запрет на майнинг в Китае в мае прошлого года, похоже, подняла хэшрейт и сохранила рекордное участие майнеров.
Сетевая сложность Биткойна, несмотря на потрясения, все же смогла добиться скромного роста в эти выходные и в настоящее время находится на пути к тому, чтобы сделать это снова во время следующей автоматической корректировки, которая произойдет чуть менее чем через две недели.

Live Bitcoin hash rate chart screenshot. Source: MiningPoolStats

“Going up forever,” on-chain analyst Dylan LeClair commented about the classic mantra, “price follows hash rate.”
For context, China’s mining rout caused hash rate to decline by 50%. It took around six months to recoup the losses.

“What if…?”

Someone who has long been saying that it’s high time for a Bitcoin trend reversal is quant analyst PlanB, creator of the stock-to-flow-based BTC price models.

Currently weathering a test of his creations — and the accompanying storm of social media criticism — PlanB nonetheless remains more optimistic than most when it comes to mid to long-term price action.
“I know some people have lost faith in this bitcoin bull market,” he acknowledged this weekend.

“However we are only halfway into the cycle (2020-2024). And although BTC experiences some turbulence at $1T, the yellow gold cluster at S2F60/$10T (small black dots are 2009-2021 gold data) is still the target IMO.”
End of Quote.

Stock-to-flow cross-asset (S2FX) chart. Source: PlanB/ Twitter

He was referring to the stock-to-flow value for Bitcoin, gold and other assets as part of his stock-to-flow cross-asset (S2FX) model, which calls for an average BTC/USD price of $288,000 during the current halving cycle.
Closer to home, however, a more simplified comparison between Bitcoin this cycle and its two previous ones saw a feasible trajectory beginning with a U-turn now.

What if … pic.twitter.com/te36HkFAbQ

— PlanB (@100trillionUSD) January 9, 2022
End of Quote.
A separate model, the floor model, which demanded $135,000 per bitcoin by the end of December, has now been discarded after failing to hit its target for the first time ever in November.